The Case for Entering the Gulf Now, While Others Wait

Dubai's skyline, seen through the Dubai Frame, reflects a city still building at scale.

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran, striking nuclear and military infrastructure and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Israel, against US bases across the Gulf, and against energy and civilian infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The conflict forced a closure of the Strait of Hormuz for a period, disrupted regional aviation and tourism, and pushed oil prices sharply higher. A ceasefire in April and a Pakistan-mediated interim agreement in June brought a pause to large-scale fighting, though intermittent strikes have continued since, and a full settlement has not yet been reached.

For brand owners and investors watching from outside the region, headlines like these tend to produce the same reflex: wait until things calm down. I understand that instinct. But I have spent my career helping brands enter the Middle East and helping regional brands go global, and the moments that create the most hesitation in a market are often the same moments that create the clearest openings for the brands willing to move deliberately.

The moments that create the most hesitation in a market are often the same moments that create the clearest openings for the brands willing to move deliberately.

The fundamentals have held

A war of this scale would normally be expected to derail a region's economic trajectory entirely. That has not happened here, at least not in the way early headlines suggested it might.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE both maintained meaningful export capacity throughout the disruption by relying on infrastructure built years in advance of this conflict. Saudi Arabia diverted several million barrels of crude per day through its east-west pipeline to the Red Sea. The UAE routed oil through its own pipeline network to the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Aramco posted a notable jump in first quarter profits this year, a sign that the region's largest energy producer continued operating at scale even as the conflict unfolded around it.

More importantly for brand owners, the Gulf's sovereign wealth funds, which collectively manage trillions of dollars in global assets, remain intact. The long-term diversification strategy that Gulf states have pursued for two decades, building tourism, finance, logistics, and consumer sectors alongside their energy base, has not been abandoned. Delayed in places, yes. Abandoned, no.

The long term diversification strategy that Gulf states have pursued for two decades... has not been abandoned. Delayed in places, yes. Abandoned, no.

Hesitation has a cost that rarely gets discussed

When international brands pause market entry plans during periods of visible disruption, that pause creates space. Retail partners still need suppliers. Licensing partners still need brands. Shelf space, distribution agreements, and consumer attention do not sit empty waiting for conditions to feel comfortable again. They go to whoever shows up.

I have watched this pattern play out before. During the 2008 financial crisis, brands that paused their Gulf plans entirely ceded ground to those that kept building. Dubai completed the Burj Khalifa in 2010, in the middle of the region's most difficult financial stretch in decades, and the brands and partners already positioned around it captured the attention that followed once conditions stabilized. During Covid, Dubai pressed ahead with preparations for Expo 2020, eventually held in late 2021 and early 2022, at a time when much of the world had paused large-scale investment altogether. In both cases, the region kept building through disruption, and the brands that stayed close to that momentum benefited far more than those that waited on the sidelines for a signal that never fully arrived.

Shelf space, distribution agreements, and consumer attention do not sit empty waiting for conditions to feel comfortable again. They go to whoever shows up.

What moving now actually looks like

Entering a disrupted market does not mean entering recklessly. It means being deliberate about how you move.

This is where the model I described in my piece on distributed small partner networks becomes especially relevant. Rather than betting an entire market entry on one flagship licensee or one anchor retail partner, brands can build smaller, well-matched regional partnerships that establish local credibility and distribution without requiring the kind of singular, high-stakes commitment that feels riskiest during a period like this one. A network of smaller partners is also inherently more resilient. If one relationship slows down because of regional conditions, the entire strategy does not collapse with it.

Partner selection still matters as much as it ever did. The criteria I outlined in what licensing partners actually look for before they commit apply with even more weight right now: decision-making authority, financial stability, and a track record of following through on commitments become more important, not less, when the broader environment is uncertain. And the readiness signals I wrote about in does a big audience mean a brand is ready for licensing still apply on the brand's own side of the table. A brand entering the Gulf now needs the same discipline around trademark protection, brand consistency, and decision speed that it would need in calmer conditions, if not more.

A network of smaller partners is also inherently more resilient. If one relationship slows down because of regional conditions, the entire strategy does not collapse with it.

The region's trajectory has not changed

The Gulf spent the last two decades transforming itself from a set of economies built almost entirely around exporting hydrocarbons into economies built around drawing the world in through tourism, finance, culture, sport, and consumer brands. That transformation required enormous, sustained investment, and it is not something regional governments are prepared to walk away from because of a period of instability, however serious that period has been.

The clearest evidence of that commitment is the scale of what continues to move forward. Dubai's Al Maktoum International Airport, planned to eventually handle up to 260 million passengers a year and become one of the largest airports in the world, remains one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects underway anywhere. A project of that scale takes decades of planning and enormous sustained capital commitment. Governments do not continue building infrastructure meant to serve the region for the next fifty years because they expect a temporary setback to define their trajectory. They build it because they expect to still be here, at a much larger scale, long after any single disruption has passed.

For brand owners, projects like this are a signal worth paying attention to. Airports of that size are built to move people, and people are what tourism, retail, hospitality, and consumer brands depend on. A region investing in that kind of capacity is a region planning for sustained growth in exactly the sectors that matter most to the brands I work with.

Governments do not continue building infrastructure meant to serve the region for the next fifty years because they expect a temporary setback to define their trajectory.

Brands considering the Middle East right now have an opportunity that will not stay open indefinitely. Once conditions fully stabilize, and they will stabilize, the brands that already have relationships, distribution, and local credibility in place will hold a meaningful advantage over those still waiting for a green light that feels risk-free.

In my experience, that green light rarely comes. The brands that succeed are the ones who decide, with good information and sound partner selection, to move anyway.